The 96 closed residential sales for the month of July 2016 was disappointing considering that July of 2015 had 125 closings and the five year average for July is 97. Looking at 2016 this far compared to last year most months have seen a better year in 2016 so the dip in activity is especially noticeable.What does this mean? Is this a trend? Should the market be alarmed?What a one month reversal of the previous months, especially in a relatively small market as Bay County actually has no “meaning” in the world of statistics. One month does not constitute a “trend”. It may be an anomaly. It that the weather was too good or too bad. It may mean that the complexities of the process of financing came to a head to slow things down. It may mean that the low inventory is finally taking its toll. It may mean any one of a number of things.Should the market be alarmed? No. However thoughtful and knowledgeable practitioners (you) should make note of this “blip” and be prepared to revisit it next month to see if there is the beginning of a trend and then revisit it at the end of September to have a realistic view of what it may have meant. Stay tuned!In a year over year comparison the mean average for Bay County residential has remained constant! The median price has risen from $77,000 to $79,000. So the two numbers are closer together indicating a more homogeneous and evenly distributed market. But clearly indicating there is no movement towards the prices of 2005.
The rate of closed residential sales in Midland County is behind but closely favoring the 2015 sales.
The 638 closed sales for the first seven months of this year is well above the same period for 2012, 2013 & 2014 but is some 47 short of what it was for the first seven months of last year.
Always remember that real estate is a “local” market. If you have read the market views above you will notice that not all of which was said applies to Saginaw. Nor does the Saginaw stats apply to the other two. This is important to remember since buyers and sellers look to your knowledge of the local community and the local market!
Saginaw County did fall short of the 181 closed residential sales in July of 2015 by 9 closings. Nine. A 4.97% decline! Really? Is this significant? “How is the market?” Squint of need be, but 2016 looks pretty darn good!
2016 had a really good spring market and has cooled a little bit in the heat of summer!
And as with other markets there has been a general flattening of the average price with the mean coming down and the median going slightly up.
My recommendation to you is if someone asks you “How’s the market?” you should reply “You wouldn’t believe it!”, then wait for their reaction and hand them one or two of your favorite charts for them to see. Now that’s being of value to whomever they may be.